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INSIIDE Track Trading analyzes cycles in the stock market, gold & silver, interest rates & commodity futures. Utilizing technical analysis & indicators, charts and proprietary cycles, ITTC provides market timing & trading strategies for Stock Indices (DJIA, S+P 500, Nasdaq 100), Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum & Copper, Interest Rate futures (Treasury Bonds, Treasury Notes & Eurodollars), Currencies (US Dollar, Euro Currency Unit, Japanese Yen...), Energy & Petroleum (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil & Unleaded Gas), Grains (Soybeans, Corn & Wheat), Livestock (Live Cattle & Lean Hogs) and many other commodities (Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Lumber, etc.). Eric Hadik also analyzes cycles that are drawn from and/or applied to the Bible, natural rhythms, Middle East geopolitics, earthquakes & volcanoes, climate change, solar activity, war & peace and many other extra-market studies.
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(Re: Historic DJIA moves) (more)
Stock Indices Confirming Bottom; Surge to 8,576--9,088/DJIA Expected!
April 2009 INSIIDE Track: "... the DJIA reached... a web of intermediate (3-6 month) downside wave targets - at 6,421 - 6,524/DJIA - during its latest cycle low, on February 23 - March 6, 2009. So, there is very little (additional) downside potential for the next 3-6 months. As a result, the March 6th bottom could hold through the rest of 2009.
If this is going to be the case, the weekly trends must turn up during the current rebound (expected to last into late-April/early-May)... Honing the focus to the next 4-6 weeks, Stock Indices are expected to rally to at least 9,000/DJIA, the intra-year high of 2009. Actually, the entire opening range - 8,576 - 9,088/DJIA - should be viewed as important resistance. However, the most noteworthy level for the rest of the year is [reserved for subscribers]...
...3-6 month AND 6-12 month traders should have averaged back into equities - on March 2 - 6, 2009 - buying at 7,058 down to 6,469/DJIA... or an average entry of about 6,763/DJIA. Risk a weekly close below 6,469/DJIA. Take profits on 1/2 of this position if/when 8,550/DJIA is hit." TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
6,450/DJIA Support Held Perfectly; Rally into late-April/early-May Likely
DJIA Poised for Multi-Month Bottom; Cycle Low Expected by March 6th...
March 2009 INSIIDE Track:
"Stock indices are at major support (the DJIA has reached its downside objective for this 2-3 year bear market) and could be signaling that a 3-6 month bottom will take hold in the February 23 - March 6th cycle... two key events of 2009 may have accelerated the time for a multi-month bottom. The first is price action... The Major downside objective for this decline - since late-2007 - has been at 7,100/DJIA (or a range of 6,948 - 7,197/DJIA)...
Moving on to cycle action... the DJIA was signaling a drop to new lows into its most synergistic cycle convergence - on February 23 - March 6, 2009. The chart [below] is an updated copy of another chart from the January INSIIDETrack... This aligns with the accompanying chart of the DJ Comp Index (DJ Industrial, Utility and Transportantion Index combined), which has a different wave structure than the DJIA. In this wave structure, the DJ Comp is very clearly completing a 5-wave decline, part of a larger-degree 3rd wave drop.
...Longer-term traders & investors (3-5 year or longer) should have exited the majority of equity holdings in late-2007... 3-6 month AND 6-12 month traders can begin averaging into equities at these levels... and averaging in down to 6,450/DJIA." TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
3-6 Month & 6-12 Month Traders Can Enter Longs on March 2--6th, Looking for Support As Market Approaches 6,450/DJIA!
DJIA Reaches 50% Decline Target; 14--15 Week Cycle Could Pinpoint Low by March 6th.
02/23/09 INSIIDE Track Update:
"Stock Indices extended their declines with the DJIA closing below its November low... While the Nasdaq 100 set new 12-week highs and turned down - in line with February cycles and 180 degrees from its August 2008 peak - the DJIA is now setting new 10+-year lows... The current week is 14 weeks from the November 2008 bottom. If a low is set during the current week or next week, it will create a 14-15 week high-low-high-high-low-low CycleSequence... and still project focus onto June 2009 when the next phase of this cycle - as well as the next phase of a 29-30 week low-high-high-low-low CycleProgression comes into play."
29-30 Week Cycle Converges in mid-June 2009...
Low by March 6th Would Corroborate This!
Yen Decline Complete; Euro Buy Signal Triggered... Surge Above 1.3400/EC Expected!
03/07/09 Weekly Re-Lay: The Dollar spiked to new highs, fulfilling its weekly trend pattern, but did not close above its previous peak. This increases the likelihood for a correction into March 18-20th. The Euro spiked to a new (recent) low but did not close below its Feb. 18th low, increasing the potential for a quick surge (that could take it back above 1.3400/ECM). The Yen fulfilled its downside projections - in time and price - and could now see a rebound. Traders should have exited the second 1/2 of their March Yen put options w/avg. gains - for the overall position - of about $2,750/option. Traders should be entering April Euro 1.3200 call options near current levels.
...the Dollar completed a 27-28 trading day low-high-high CycleProgression and ushered in the time when a 1-2 week correction is a much higher probability. If this takes hold, as is expected, it should trigger a Doller drop into mid-March (March 18--20th = ideal period), 90 degrees from its mid-December low and 180 degrees from its mid-September low.
The Euro did the opposite, dropping to new intra-year (and 2+-month) lows BUT not even spiking below its late-October/mid-November bottom. It tested weekly support, in the process, and immediately reversed higher. This action strengthens the significance of 3-6 month support (around 1.2350--1.2450/EC) and increases the potential for a sharp rebound from this support...
...The Yen - for all intents and purposes - fulfilled the 2-4 week outlook for a drop to .9995--1.0018/JYH, and a possible low on March 4--6th, 60 degrees from the Jan. 6th low & 120 degrees from the Nov. 4th low. This could prompt a rally into March 17-20th, 60 degrees from the Jan. 21st peak and 90 degrees from the Dec. 17th peak.
...TradingStrategy: 1--4 week traders should have exited 1/2 of March Japanese Yen 1.0500 put options - purchased at an avg. of 31 ticks - around 240 ticks w/avg. gains of about $2,600/option. These traders should have exited the other 1/2 of JYH 1.0500 put options on Friday - between 206--320 points (avg. of 263 points) w/avg. gains of about $2,900/option.
1--4 week traders should have just started buying April Euro 1.3200 call options on Friday and can still average into these down to 1.2420/ ECM. Risk a daily close below 1.2327/ECM. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!"
Euro Rally/Dollar Decline into March 18--20th Projected
Stock Indices Signal Drop to New Lows; 2-3 Year Bear Market Intact
08/29/08 INSIIDE Track:
"Stock indices continue to reinforce ongoing analysis for a 2-3 year bear market from 2007 (when the oft-cited 17-Year Cycle came into play) into 2009 or 2010. All other analysis should be filtered through these expectations... On a monthly basis, the trend is solidly down and expected to remain negative. During the month of August, the indices surged enough for the S+P & Nasdaq 100 to attack and hold their monthly LHRs while the DJIA topped at its monthly resistance... Ultimately, this pattern projects a drop to an ensuing monthly HLS...
Longer-term traders & investors (3-5 year or longer) should have exited 70 - 100% of their equity market holdings at an avg. of about 12,800/DJIA and should exit remaining holdings on a weekly close below 10,573/DJIA. ...This ushers in a precarious 1-2 week period when the intermediate trend could turn from neutral back to down... and project - at the very least - a retest of their mid-July lows."
January 2009 = Decisive Cycle
17-Year Cycle Downturn Signaled
2008 Decline Could Portend Trouble in mid-2009
12/03/2007 INSIIDE Track:
"Stock indices have fulfilled multiple cycles - on multiple levels - in multiple (diverse) arenas, setting the stage for a more prolonged bear market... The DJIA & SPZ reversed their weekly trends to down, validating the October 11th peaks... the 8-10 year wave structure calls for a 31-33 month decline once a multi-year top is confirmed. This would match the duration of the Jan./March 2000 - October 2002 declines.
However, there is another correlation that I am watching. It is the time-lapse between when the financial markets first warn of impending trouble... and when real trouble finally emerges... In the first part of this decade, that time frame was a geometric 540 degrees from March 2000 (peak in S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 indices) to September 2001. A similar, 18-month lead time focuses some attention on April - July 2009 (projected from the July, October & November index peaks). This is intriguing since it fits perfectly with Russian/Iranian/nuclear cycles and with a recurring, post-U.S. election attack cycle (think 1993 WTC bombing and 2001 WTC attacks). More on this later.
...Longer-term traders & investors (3-5 year or longer) should have exited another 5-10% of longs in early-November, reducing the current equity market investment down to about 15 - 40% (having exited 60 - 85% at an avg. of about 13,000/DJIA). Use a daily close below 12,724/DJIA to exit additional longs (5 - 10%)."
31--33 Month Decline Projected
April -- July 2009 Could be a Dangerous (Geopolitical) Period
17-Year Cycle Peaks in 2007
MAJOR Cycles Turning Down in late-2007
04/30/2007 INSIIDE Track:
"...the start of a 2-year bear market in stocks...The indices are living on borrowed time and this is expected to be more apparent in late-2007... when an initial decline could be unfolding..."
05/30/2007 INSIIDE Track:
"Could the stock market be in for another sharp correction, as in 1973 & 1939... The current culmination could stretch into 3Q 2007 - just as in 1939, 1956 & 1990 - but this would not alter the larger cycles... For over a decade, my primary focus has been on Sept. 2007 to usher in a unique period in history."
06/27/2007 INSIIDE Track:
"...the DJIA could be heading for a 20 - 50% correction in the next 1-3 years... If history is any indicator, the Fall of 2007 could see the fall of stock prices... just as in 1939, 1956, 1973 & 1990."
07/22/2007 Marketviews.tv Interview (carried on CBS, ABC & Fox News websites): "...major upside objectives in the Dow... coming into play from 14,094 up to 14,491... it wouldn't surprise me to see another spike above the 14,000 level... late 2007 to usher in a period where I think we are going to see trouble in the markets. Sep/Oct '07 through Sep/Oct '08 is the first phase of that overall period."
07/31/2007 INSIIDE Track:
"Stock indices are expected to enter a 1-2 year decline in 2007-2008... many other - even longer-term and potentially more powerful - cycles are only beginning to turn down now. This is why I believe that mid-to-late 2007 will usher in a 4-5 year period of very volatile, uncertain, and sometimes very negative action... Major upside objectives grouped closely together, right around 14,000/DJIA."
09/28/2007 INSIIDE Track:
"Stock indices have been expected to experience a sharp decline in the second half of 2007, potentially paralleling the Fall - and fall - of 1990... Longer-term traders & investors (3-5 year or longer) should be down to about 25-45% invested in the equity markets (having exited 55 - 75% at an avg. of about 12,950/DJIA)."
10/31/2007 INSIIDE Track:
Stock indices are expected to begin a larger-scale correction in Nov... enter a 2-3 year bear market, resulting in a downward trend (and lower yearly closes) in 2008/2009... the indices could fulfill two different levels of cycle tops in 2007..."
2-3 Year Bear Market in Stocks Expected
Gold & Silver Poised to Surge;
Rally into mid-May Likely!
05/02/09 Weekly Re-Lay:
"All of these factors support the contention that precious metals have completed a corrective wave and could/should be in the early stages of new impulse waves. At the very least, Gold & Silver should rally back to their February highs - in the next 1-2 months... there could be a sharp rally and sharp decline leading into June...
The daily trend remains up in Silver and is in a bullish position after pulling back and generating two neutral signals (but not reversing down)... 1--4 week traders can buy [reserved for subscribers]."
Gold & Silver Signal Lows;
New Impulse Wave Expected!
04/25/09 Weekly Re-Lay:
"Gold & Silver fulfilled the ideal duration for their 'c' wave declines and immediately reversed higher. The April 20th low completed a 30-degree high-high-low Cycle Progression - that connects the Feb. 20th high and March 20th secondary high - and set the stage for the outside-week/2 Close Reversal higher in Silver. This also followed both metals spiking into - and then reversing higher from - their year-opening ranges... AND... Silver retracing exactly 50% of its prior advance while Gold bottomed out a few dollars above a 50% retracement. All of this indicates that Gold & Silver should rally back to their February highs before they close below recent lows. This rally could last into May 18--22nd, fulfilling multiple intermediate cycles."
Gold & Silver Poised to Bottom;
April 20th = Ideal Date for Low.
04/18/09 Weekly Re-Lay:
"Gold & Silver fulfilled analysis for declines into mid-April and are poised to set a low in the coming week, in line with Gold's weekly trend pattern... Gold & Silver have nearly fulfilled the ideal duration for their 'c' wave declines. A low in the coming week - ideally on April 20th, completing a 30-degree high-high-low Cycle Progression that connects the Feb. 20th high and March 20th secondary high - would provide the optimum scenario... the coming week is the most likely for an intermediate low."
Stock Indices Reach Initial Targets; Short-Term Top Possible...
03/18/09 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "StockIndices have surged to their weekly - and in the case of the SPM & NQM, their monthly - resistance levels with the S+P surging over 20% from its lows. This powerfully corroborates the DJIA's 14-15 week high-low-high-high-low-low CycleSequence - that came into play from February 23--March 6th - and also its intermediate downside wave targets at 6,421--6,524/DJIA.
If the Indices are going to advance into late-April/early-May - as has been projected - it would not be surprising to see an initial peak in the coming days (March 19/20th or 23/24th) and then a pullback into the final days of March or opening days of April."
Precise Dates For Next High Discussed in 3/18/09 Alert
Euro Surges into Cycle High; March 19/20th Top Likely...
03/18/09 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
"The Euro has perfectly fulfilled the early-March analysis for a "quick surge into mid-March... and a test of its monthly LHR - at 1.3402/ECM..." It gave the final level of confirmation on Tuesday's close (close above 1.2985/ECM) and then surged today, already attaining its primary upside target while testing its weekly LHR (for the 2nd consecutive week), at 1.3466/ECM. I would not be surprised to see an intermediate peak take hold in the next 1-2 days.
1--4 week traders should have been long April Euro 1.3200 call options from an avg. of about 55 ticks and just exited 1/2 of them - around 270 ticks - w/avg. gains of about $2,650/option. The other 1/2 are still being held w/avg. open gains of about $3,400/option. Take profits on this remaining 1/2 of positions during the first hour of pit-session trading tomorrow. [FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK. SEE HYPOTHETICAL DISCLAIMER.]
The Yen reversed its daily & intra-month trends to up, confirming projections for a rally into March 17--20th. The ideal date for a top would be Friday and 1.0608/JYM is still considered important resistance for this rally... However, the Yen does have a growing convergence of upside targets - along with monthly resistance - at 1.0894--1.0999/JYM. This includes wave equivalence (current rally equals previous rally) at 1.0960/JYM, the weekly 21HighAMAC at 1.0999/JYM, the weekly LHR at 1.0894/JYM and a .618 retracement - of the previous decline - at 1.0956/ JYM.
The weekly 21HighMAC is poised to turn down - this week - as long as the Yen does not surge above 1.1117/JYM. So, the 1-2 month outlook is still for another decline. However, since the daily & intra-month trends have turned up, it is important to wait and let the Yen tell us where it is going to peak, before acting on it.
The DollarIndex is also fulfilling projections for a sharp drop into March 18--20th. It has spiked below its weekly HLS - at 85.02/DXM - and could drop as low as its monthly HLS, at 82.79/DXM. This would also entail a critical retest of the year-opening lows. The weekly 21MAC is also coming into play, providing intermediate support at 83.47--84.05/DXM.)."
Dollar Could Test 82.79/DXM
Stock Indices Reach Wave Targets; 6,450/DJIA Support Holds...
03/11/09 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "StockIndices turned back up, immediately following the fulfillment of the DJIA's 14-15 week high-low-high-high-low-low CycleSequence. They also did this immediately after attacking (coming within 19 points of) the 6,450/DJIA buy level cited in the March 2009 INSIIDETrack (and attacking new monthly support levels).
...While this was taking place, the NQ futures continued to hold above their Nov. 2008 bottom, reinforcing that this is an 'a-b-c' correction (to the upside) that is about to begin its 'c' wave advance... rally to monthly resistance levels - at 7,703--7,845/DJIA, 805.0--819.5/SPM & 1207.0--1252.0/NQM."
Surge to Monthly Resistance Likely
Stock Indices Validate Cycle Low; March 2--6th Bottom Confirmed...
03/11/09 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "...the Indices have the potential to rally into late-April/early-May, 1 year (360 degrees) from their late-April/early-May 2008 peak as well as 180 degrees from the early-November 2008 peak and 540 degrees from the early-November 2007 Nasdaq 100 peak.
A peak in late-April/early-May would also complete back-to-back, 7-week advances in the NQ 100 (with the 'c' wave rally equaling the duration of the 'a' wave rally, even though the magnitude of the 'c' wave is likely to be greater). [This could usher in a politically-dangerous period from early-May into mid-June as originally discussed in November/December 2007 and now corroborated by these cycles.]"
Rally into Late-April Likely
Yen Sell Signal Confirmed; Drop into March 2--6th Expected
02/21/09 Weekly Re-Lay:
"The Yen is reinforcing that this decline could take it down to .9995/JYH and could extend into early-March. Traders should have purchased March Yen put options and be holding these w/avg. open gains of about $425/option... If it closes below 1.0567/JYH, the Yen is now even more likely to drop to .9995/JYH (which is close to the weekly HLS of 1.0018/JYH).
In addition, this would project a continued decline into March 2--6th, 60 degrees from the January 6th low and 120-degrees from the November 4th low... and a .618 retracement in time (of its August 15th--December 18th advance).
Japanese Yen Sell Signal at 1.0880--1.1300/JYH; Sharp 2-4 Week Drop Likely...
02/07/09 Weekly Re-Lay:
"The Yen is confirming expectations for a quick, sharp drop that could test .9995/JYH... It also has the potential to stretch this decline into late-February, 180 degrees from its August 25th low... traders should have extended this campaign and purchased March Japanese Yen 1.0500 put options at an avg. of about 39 ticks and should be holding these w/avg. open gains of about $350/option. Risk a daily close above 1.1102/JYH, from this point forward. Take profits on 1/2 of these if/when 1.0021/JYH is hit."
