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01/06/10 INSIIDE Track: "Long-term uptrends in Gold & Silver remain intact but 6-12 month upside targets (1200.0/GC & 1900.0/SI) have been met. Volatile consolidation is likely, into mid-2010... Gold & Silver have dropped sharply after fulfilling their 6-12 month upside objectives (first published in mid-July) by surging into December and up to 1200.0/GC & 1900.0/SI. In doing so, Silver retested its mid-July '08 peak - at 1937.5/SI - but not its major high.
...this completed an advance that lasted 1.618 as long as the preceding decline... but did not reach the preceding peak (of March 2008). It also completed a 31-32 week rally, the most common cycle in Silver (reiterated earlier this year)... If this trend reversal is corroborated by Gold - with a weekly close below 1095.7/GCG - it would project another decline into mid-2010. One of the reasons for this is... [See INSIIDETrack for analysis and details on the specific time when the next major bottom is most likely.]."
INSIIDETrack Details Expectations for 2010 (when a bottom is most likely)... ...2011 (when the next top is likely and why it could coincide with an external 'event')...
...and 2013 (when the bull market is projected to culminate)!
Stock Indices Signal Top; Drop into February 1/2nd Likely... January 19th & 20th = Confirmation Dates!
01/16/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "Stock Indices have initially validated cycle highs in early-January and analysis for an intermediate top at this time. A drop into early-February is possible... [DJIA] fulfilled price objectives by reaching the 2009 upside target in late-December and then spiking up to the most important resistance of the past few years - at 10,663--10,698/DJIA - in the first 6 days of 2010. This coincided with the SPH & NQH reaching their upside targets AND hitting & holding synergistic weekly LHR levels - at 1870--1907.0/NQH & 1142.6--1159.7/SPH. Based on this pattern (in the NQH), an intermediate peak was expected this past week.
Stock Indices were - and still are - expected to see a 1-2 week correction... this decline could escalate to more of an intermediate drop that lasts 3-5 weeks. This could create the next intermediate bottom around February 2nd... This is reinforced by the intervening low on December 17/18th, at the exact mid-point (45 days/degrees) of the 90-degree cycle from Nov. 2nd to Feb. 2nd. Another 45 days/degrees in the future - a 45-degree low-low-low CycleProgression - projects a bottom on February 1/2nd.
Stock Indices have initially peaked during cycle highs in early-January. As discussed multiple times, the week of January 4--8th was the ideal time for a peak. As of right now, that week has provided the highest close...
TradingStrategy: 1--4 week traders can sell the March e-mini SP futures at 1134.5 up to 1149.5. Place buy stops at 1159.25/ESH." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.
Stock Indices Could Accelerate Lower in Coming Weeks; DJIA Drop Below 10,000 Expected
Stock Indices Remain Bullish; Rally to 10,698/DJIA - into January 2010 - Likely
12/05/09 Weekly Re-Lay: "Stock Indices have rallied since their early-November cycle lows but continue to test and hold the 2009 upside targets - most notably at 10,300--10,600/DJIA... Corresponding resistance - from the past 3-5 years - comes into play at 10,661--10,698/DJIA.
The 6-12 month outlook remains firmly intact. Stock Indices were projected to set a 6-12 month bottom on Feb. 23--March 6th, 2009 and have been expected to see an overall rally into March 2010. During this advance, cycle lows were expected in July and again in early early-November. These took place and the Indices have advanced immediately after all three of these cycle lows (March, July & November).
As the final phase of this overall advance unfolds (from early-November into early-March 2010), certain landmarks are important. One of them is the mid-point - in early-January... I am more focused on the early-January period which - combined with the 14-15 week cycle that has been discussed in multiple issues of INSIIDETrack - argues for an intermediate top at that time... The daily trends remain solidly up, as do the daily 21MACs."
Gold & Silver Reach 6-12 Month Upside Targets 3--6 Month Peaks Likely Near 1200.0/GC & 1900.0/SI!
12/02/09 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
"Gold & Silver - along with Copper, Platinum & the CRB Index - rallied into daily cycles on Dec. 2/3rd and are poised to set a 2-4 week peak. Gold & Silver are spiking above their 6-12 month upside objectives so this has the potential to be a 2-3 month peak..."
Stock Indices On Track; Rally to 10,698/DJIA Likely
11/28/09 Weekly Re-Lay:
"The 6-12 month outlook remains firmly intact. Stock Indices were projected to set a 6-12 month bottom on Feb. 23--March 6th, 2009. This was expected to spur a minimum 50% upside rebound in time & price with an overall rally that could stretch into March 2010. That remains the case.
From a 3-6 month perspective (the second half of 2009), Stock Indices were projected to bottom in July, surge into late-September and then be in a corrective mode until early-November... followed by a new wave higher... Stock Indices bottomed during the week of July 6--10th, rallied into late-September and then entered a corrective mode into early-November... the Nov. 2/3rd lows combined with an anticipated early-March peak point to early-January (midpoint) as a key time.
... Last week's (11/21/09) Weekly Re-Lay elaborated on all of the important resistance that comes into play at 10,661--10,698/DJIA and represents the first major resistance zone for this entire rebound (not just the rally in 2009)."
September 2009 INSIIDE Track: "9/01/09 - "The next 10-15 days are crucial and could still produce a final rally (as long as the daily trends do not turn down)... One of the strongest reasons for a rally into mid-month comes from the 14-15 week cycle that has governed Stock Indices since October 2007... and which pinpointed the March 6th bottom.
Since October 2007, the DJIA has seen a 15-week decline followed by a 14-week rebound. This gave way to a 15-week high-high cycle and then a 14-week decline... followed by a 15-week low-low (into March 2-6, 2009). Stock Indices then rallied for 14 weeks - into June 8-12, 2009 - and could produce a subsequent 14-week high-high cycle if they set a peak on September 14 - 18, 2009..."
14-15 Week & 29-30 Week Cycles Converging; Early-Jan. 2010 & April 2010 = Next Cycle Highs
Stock Indices Validating July 6--10th Cycle Low; Rally into September Expected...
July 25, 2009 Weekly Re-Lay: StockIndices have given an important level of confirmation to ongoing analysis for a low in July and the onset of a new, multi-month advance. All three indices closed the week at new, intra-year highs - signaling/confirming the development of a new wave (a 'c' or '3' wave of a larger-degree 'B' wave advance) to the upside.
Keeping the 3-6 month and 6-12 month bullish outlooks in perspective, the Indices were expected to:
bottom by/on March 6th and at 6,421--6,524/DJIA;
enter a new rally that would take the DJIA up to 10,300--10,600;
potentially extend this advance into March 2010.
The major bottom came on schedule, as did the ensuing 30-40% advance... the 4th phase - a rally to 10,300--10,600/DJIA appears to be underway."
6-12 Month (Bullish) Outlook Remains on Track...
Gold & Silver Signal 2-3 Month Advance; Surge to 1200.0/GC & 1900/SI Possible!
July 18, 2009 Weekly Re-Lay:
"The action of the past week reinforces the overall strength in Gold & Silver... Gold needed to hold at or above 3--6 month support (around 888--895.0/GCQ) in order to maintain this uptrend... and has initially done so... Gold & Silver are still poised to rally... Gold remains in a weekly uptrend, reinforcing this scenario... From a price and wave perspective, Gold & Silver have some pretty bullish potential... Gold could easily reach 1050--1070 and has a decent chance of accelerating above 1200.0/GC while Silver could see a surge back to 1900.0/SI."
January 2010 = Next Cycle Low
Stock Indices Confirming Bottom; 6-12 Month Advance Projected!
April 2009 INSIIDE Track: "...the DJIA reached... a web of intermediate (3-6 month) downside wave targets - at 6,421 - 6,524/DJIA - during its latest cycle low, on February 23 - March 6, 2009... the March 6th bottom could hold through the rest of 2009... the most noteworthy level for the rest of the year is... 10,459/DJIA... It would not surprise me to see the DJIA retest this level - at 10,459... This range should be viewed as the upside objective AND major resistance for any rallies in 2009. ...3-6 month AND 6-12 month traders should have averaged back into equities - on March 2 - 6, 2009 - buying at 7,058 down to 6,469/DJIA... or an average entry of about 6,763/DJIA." TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
DJIA Poised for Multi-Month Bottom; Cycle Low Expected by March 6th...
March 2009 INSIIDE Track: "Stock indices are at major support (the DJIA has reached its downside objective for this 2-3 year bear market) and could be signaling that a 3-6 month bottom will take hold in the February 23 - March 6th cycle... The Major downside objective for this decline - since late-2007 - has been at 7,100/DJIA (or a range of 6,948 - 7,197/DJIA)... the DJIA was signaling a drop to new lows into its most synergistic cycle convergence - on February 23 - March 6, 2000... . ...Longer-term traders & investors (3-5 year or longer) should have exited the majority of equity holdings in late-2007... 3-6 month AND 6-12 month traders can begin averaging into equities at these levels... and averaging in down to 6,450/DJIA." TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
3-6 Month & 6-12 Month Traders Can Enter Longs on March 2--6th, Looking for Support As Market Approaches 6,450/DJIA!
17-Year Cycle Peaks in 2007
MAJOR Cycles Turning Down in late-2007
Bear Markets Expected into 2009 & into 2012!!
04/30/2007 INSIIDE Track: "...the start of a 2-year bear market in stocks...The indices are living on borrowed time and this is expected to be more apparent in late-2007... when an initial decline could be unfolding..."
05/30/2007 INSIIDE Track: "For over a decade, my primary focus has been on Sept. 2007 to usher in a unique period in history."
06/27/2007 INSIIDE Track: "...the DJIA could be heading for a 20 - 50% correction in the next 1-3 years..."
07/31/2007 INSIIDE Track: "...mid-to-late 2007 will usher in a 4-5 year period of very volatile, uncertain, and sometimes very negative action..."
10/31/2007 INSIIDE Track: "Stock indices are expected to begin a larger-scale correction in Nov... enter a 2-3 year bear market...fulfill two different levels of cycle tops in 2007..."
12/03/2007 INSIIDE Track: "Stock indices have fulfilled multiple cycles - on multiple levels - in multiple (diverse) arenas, setting the stage for a more prolonged bear market..."
Stock Indices Confirm Sell IV; Drop Below 10,000/DJIA Likely!
01/30/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "StockIndices are adhering to the ideal scenario for a 3-5 week decline from the early-January cycle peak into an early-February cycle low... The weekly trend in the Nasdaq 100 futures turned down this past week, while all of the Indices completed outside-month/2CloseReversals lower.
Thiscouldbeshowingthatanintra-yearhighisalreadyintactintheNasdaq100... 10,660--10,693/DJIA is a major 'balance point'... through much of the past decade... this range was the primary upside objective for this entire 6-12 month advance (from March 2009)... Downside targets remain at 9,939--9,989/DJIA & 1058--1061.0/SPH and are corroborated by weekly support..."
Add'l Downside Expected...
Before early-Feb. Bottom!
Stock Indices Confirm Sell III; More Downside Expected!
01/28/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "StockIndices have added another level of corroboration to the intermediate downside target at 1058--1061.0/SPH... The DJIA is still targeted for 9,939--9,989 while the Nasdaq 100 is already testing its corresponding target at 1744--1756/NQH. However, the DJIA has begun to build a slightly lower target - that applies more to next week than this week - around 9,850...1--4 week traders should be short March e-mini SP futures at 1134.5 up to 1147.0 (avg. entry into short positions around 1140.75/ESH) and holding these positions... Exit 1/2 of these short positions if/when 1059.75/ESH is hit..." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
1058--1061/SPH =
Primary Downside Target
Stock Indices Confirm Sell II;
01/26/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "StockIndices are still likely to extend this decline into February 1/2nd... An increasingly synergetic level of support is developing in the S+P 500 and could be tested tomorrow (although a more likely scenario could have it waiting until Thursday to be tested). It is coming into play at 1059--1061.0/SPH... A similar range is developing at 1744--1756/NQ."
Drop into Feb. 1/2nd on Track
Stock Indices Confirm Sell; Drop Below 10,000/DJIA Likely!
01/23/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "...Stock Indices are powerfully validating cycle highs in early-January and analysis for a drop into early-February... it is corroborated by the weekly trend pattern in the DJIA & SPH - which point to Feb. 1--5th as the most likely week for a bottom... the DJIA is developing important support - and an initial, intermediate downside objective - around 9,939--9,989...
TradingStrategy: 1--4 week traders should have sold the March e-mini SP futures at 1134.5 up to 1147.0 (avg. entry into short positions around 1140.75/ESH) and be holding these short positions..." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK. See Hypothetical Trading Disclaimer.
Stock Indices Trigger Sell; Sharp Decline Likely!
01/20/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "...the early signs of what could be a 3-5 week decline. The DJIA reached its upside targets...This coincided with multiple levels of monthly resistance, intra-month resistance (PLLR), weekly resistance, etc. - stretching above 10,700/DJIA - and the recent peak should hold for at least a couple months...from a price and cycle perspective (intermediate cycles had forecast a surge from early-November into early-January), this advance has reached fruition and is ripe for a correction.
1--4 week traders should have sold the March e-mini S+P futures at 1134.5 up to 1147.0..." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK. See Hypothetical Trading Disclaimer.
1-2 Month Top Forming
Stock Indices Peaking; Nasdaq/S+P Targets Reached
01/09/10 Weekly Re-Lay:
"StockIndices extended their advances through the past week... This also occurred during the second week after the NQH spiked up to - and held - the convergence of 4 (out of 5) weekly LHRs - at 1870--1907.0/NQH. In most cases, an intermediate peak will take hold... the SPH was projected to follow suit and spike up to where 4 of the most recent 5 weekly LHR levels converged (1145--1159.7/SPH) - and where 5 of the most recent 7 weekly LHRs converged (1142.6--1159.7/SPH).
Based on a 7-8 trading day low-low-low-low-high CycleProgression, a 1-2 week (or longer) top could be set on January 12th or 13th. This would extend an 18-19 trading day high-high-high-high-high-high CycleProgression and also create a 42-day high-high-high CycleProgression."
DJIA Peak Imminent!
Stock Indices Rallying; Surge to 10,800/DJIA Possible
12/19/09 Weekly Re-Lay: "...the outlook is for a rally into early-January with the DJIA capable of spiking up to 10,800... and the SPH to 1130.0--1145.0. The NQH has a more synergetic range of weekly LHRs (4 of the last 5) - at 1870--1907.0/NQH...
A peak in early-January would fulfill the next phase of a 14-15 week cycle, would come 120, 90 & 60 degrees from recent intermediate lows... AND would create a 2-month/60-degree low-high-high CycleProgression focused on early-March for the next intermediate peak."
12/05/09 Weekly Re-Lay: "Gold & Silver have completely fulfilled their 6-12 month upside objectives at 1200.0/GC & 1900.0/SI. As a result, a 2-3 month peak could soon take hold. This coincides with analysis in the Dollar, which appears to be tracing out a significant bottom... Gold & Silver turned lower in synch with so many cycles - in commodity and financial markets - that converged on December 2/3rd."
April 2010 = Intermediate Cycle Low July 2010 = Intra-year Cycle Low
Stock Indices Advancing; Surge into early-Jan. Likely
11/21/09 Weekly Re-Lay: "StockIndices are trading in the range that represents the primary upside objective for all of 2009 - 10,300--10,600/DJIA. Since late-March - within weeks of the 6,469/DJIA bottom - this has been the target for what was projected to be a 6-12 month advance... this has been a 'balance' or 'equilibrium' point for the DJIA for a few years. There are several previous lows (support turned into resistance) at 10,661--10,698/DJIA that corroborate this analysis and which should act as a potential ceiling... at least for this initial advance."
10,661 - 10,698/DJIA = Potential Top!
Natural Gas Bottoming Sept. 2009 = MAJOR Cycle Low
08/29/09 Weekly Re-Lay: "Natural Gas has fulfilled ongoing analysis for a decline into late-August or early-September... the 17-Year Cycle is calling for a Major bottom in 2009... The strongest argument for a bottom - at this juncture of time & price - comes from the following:
PRICE: The continuous contract has just spiked down to 2.692/NG, fulfilling the major, downside objective at 2.700/NG...
TIME: Natural Gas has set important turning points (most of them lows) in the month of September during 6 of the 8 years since 2001. And, in 2002 (1 of the 2 remaining years), Natural Gas set a 6-7 year bottom in the month of August. All totaled, Natural Gas created:
A 7-8 year low in September 2001; A 6-7 year low in August 2002; A 5-6 year low in September 2003... A 4-5 year low in September 2004...
September has been a decisive month in Natural Gas... and many corroborating cycles and signals point to September 2009 as being equally decisive (perhaps more so)."
