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[Re:
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Super cycle and price analysis. Accurate
analysis on either plane is difficult, on both
planes Herculean. You've correctly
analyzed both planes - price and cycles. Kudos!...keep
up the outstanding work."
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Thank you!
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INSIIDE Track Trading analyzes cycles in the stock market, gold & silver, interest rates & commodity futures. Utilizing technical analysis & indicators, charts and proprietary cycles, ITTC provides market timing & trading strategies for Stock Indices (DJIA, S+P 500, Nasdaq 100), Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum & Copper, Interest Rate futures (Treasury Bonds, Treasury Notes & Eurodollars), Currencies (US Dollar, Euro Currency Unit, Japanese Yen...), Energy & Petroleum (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil & Unleaded Gas), Grains (Soybeans, Corn & Wheat), Livestock (Live Cattle & Lean Hogs) and many other commodities (Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Lumber, etc.). Eric Hadik also analyzes cycles that are drawn from and/or applied to the Bible, natural rhythms, Middle East geopolitics, earthquakes & volcanoes, climate change, solar activity, war & peace and many other extra-market studies.
As
seen on CNBC, heard on 'Inside Wall Street' &
seen in the Wall Street Journal, Investor's Business
Daily, Futures World News, etc... (more)
"Eric's
timing signals have been superb... one of the best
kept secrets of our industry." Host of weekly show:
'Inside Wall Street' (more)
"...you
called with great accuracy the events of the past
few days"
CNBC Correspondent
-- 10/29/97
(Re: Historic DJIA moves) (more)
Stock Indices Poised for Secondary Peak; Consistent Cycle Peaks on May 13th...
New Decline Should Follow!
05/12/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "StockIndices- after reaching multiple downside targets and fulfilling expectations for a sharp decline into May 5/6th - have rebounded and are still expected to set a secondary peak on May 13--17th. This is when a 13-14 trading day/20 calendar day CycleProgression comes into play again. The daily trends - which cannot turn up until May 17th, at the earliest (except NQM, which could turn up on May 14th) - corroborate this. The daily 21MACs are also negative and are likely to keep a lid on advances for the next few days.
The upside target for this rebound - and the most important level of intermediate resistance - comes into play at the weekly trend-neutral points of 10,977/ DJIA, 1180.0/SPM & 1985/NQM. Weekly resistance overlaps these levels, increasing its significance. So, if the Indices can test these levels and reverse lower - without turning the daily trends up - it would set the stage for a new decline."
Overall Outlook for Decline into July 2010
Stock Indices Complete Initial Decline; Rebound into May 13th Likely
05/08/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "Stock Indices dropped sharply, powerfully validating the potential for an April 2010 peak near 11,170--11,241/DJIA & 2035--2045/NQM. An overall decline into July - the next phase of a very consistent 71--73 week cycle - is possible... In late-April, they spiked to slight new highs during the latest phase of their ongoing 14-15 week Cycle Progression (the most consistent cycle for the past 2.5 years) - and then gave weekly 2 Close Reversal sell signals on April 30th.
...The Indices have flattened their respective weekly 21 MACs while turning their intra-year trends to down (it took almost 4 months to achieve the gains of 2010 and less than 2 weeks to erase them all). However, the most important confirmation - of a multi-month peak - would be for the weekly trends to turn down. May 21st is the earliest this can occur.
...An ongoing, 13-14 trading day/20 calendar day Cycle Progression pinpoints May 13--17th as the ideal time for a secondary peak."
Upside Targets/Resistance Available
Stock Indices Trigger Sell Signals; Sharp Drop into early-May Projected!
05/01/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "Stock Indices have given the first signs of an intermediate reversal lower after fulfilling about 99% of 6-12 month, 3-6 month, 1-2 month & 1-4 week upside cyclic expectations and most of upside price expectations. They briefly spiked to new highs on Monday - completing the next phase of the 14-15 week Cycle Progression (the most consistent cycle for the past 2.5 years) - and then gave weekly 2 Close Reversal sell signals with the DJIA & SPM also giving outside-week reversals lower.
...These closes would also trigger a breakdown of the '4th wave of lesser degree' support levels, signaling that a larger-degree decline is underway...the final (intra-year) support level would be at the February 5th lows of 9,835/DJIA, 1035.9/SPM & 1708/NQM...These lows also represent the '4th wave of lesser degree' on a larger scale (the 4th wave of the 5-wave advance from March 2009) - the primary downside target for a 2-3 month correction...
The peaks of this past week complete a host of geometric cycles, including a 15-week low-high-high Cycle Progression, a 30-week low-low-high Cycle Progression, a 60-week advance from the March 6, 2009 bottom and a 30-month low-low-high-high Cycle Progression that has unfolded since the October 2002 low...1--4 week traders should have sold June e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures at an avg. of 2041 and be holding these..." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK.
Multiple Cycles Fulfilled With April 2010 Peak
Gold & Silver Remain Bullish; May 10--12th = Key Cycle!
04/21/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "Gold & Silver pulled back while giving multiple neutral signals to their respective daily uptrends. They have not turned these trends down, leaving them in the ideal setup to enter a second advance (as part of the overall expectations for two rallies from March 26th into May 10--12th). The recent April 12th peak reinforced this potential, projecting a subsequent peak 30 degrees in the future - on May 12th. A peak on May 10--12th would also arrive 120 degrees from the January 11th peak and 60 degrees from the March 10th peak (a 60-degree high-high-high Cycle Progression that reaches fruition on May 10/11th).
Silver has already re-entered its daily uptrend while Gold needs a daily close above 1150.4/GCM to do the same. Gold & Silver are still poised to surge above 1200.0/GCM & 1945/SIK leading into May 10--12th."
04/14/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: "Gold & Silver possess an interesting web of cycles aligning on May 10--12th. For starters, a peak at that time would arrive 120 degrees from the January 11th peak and 60 degrees from the March 10th peak. These two highs create a 60-degree high-high-high Cycle Progression that projects the next peak on May 10/11th...By pulling back first, this also indicates that Gold could surge above 1200.0/GCM while Silver retests 1945/SIK in the coming weeks."
03/27/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "Gold & Silver spiked lower and fulfilled an ongoing cycle. A new advance could take hold at any time... Gold & Silver spiked lower this past week, fulfilling an 11--13 week low-high-low-low-low-low-low-low-low-low-low Cycle Sequence while holding at or above intermediate support and monthly support levels. Simultaneously, Gold created a 6.5 week low-low-low Cycle Progression - that also acts as an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern - and should spur a 6.5 week rally into early-May...
If the low of the past week holds, a 47-day low-low-high Cycle Progression would project a peak for May 10th. Similarly, a 60-degree cycle connects the January 11th & March 10th peaks and projects an ensuing peak for May 10/11th. An intervening peak - on April 9/12th - would reinforce this... The monthly trend pattern is turning bullish... From an Elliott Wave perspective, this '4th' wave correction tested and held the high of the '1' wave rally as well. All these factors indicate the end of a correction and the onset of a new rally in the coming week. [See March 27, 2010 WeeklyRe-Lay for 3 corresponding trading strategies.]."
11--13 Week Cycle Portends March 22--26th Bottom; Two Surges Expected Between Late-March & Early-May... April 9/12th - Ideal Time for Initial Peak!
Stock Indices Reinforcing Cycles; Watch April 2010!
September 2009 INSIIDE Track: "9/01/09 - "One of the strongest reasons for a rally into mid-month comes from the 14-15 week cycle that has governed Stock Indices since October 2007... and which pinpointed the March 6th bottom. Since October 2007, the DJIA has seen a 15-week decline followed by a 14-week rebound. This gave way to a 15-week high-high cycle and then a 14-week decline... followed by a 15-week low-low (into March 2-6, 2009). Stock Indices then rallied for 14 weeks - into June 8-12, 2009 - and could produce a subsequent 14-week high-high cycle if they set a peak on September 14 - 18, 2009..."
14-15 Week & 29-30 Week Cycles Converging; Early-Jan. 2010 & April 2010 = Next Cycle Highs
Stock Indices Confirming Bottom; 6-12 Month Advance Projected!
April 2009 INSIIDE Track: "...the DJIA reached... a web of intermediate (3-6 month) downside wave targets - at 6,421 - 6,524/DJIA - during its latest cycle low, on February 23 - March 6, 2009... the March 6th bottom could hold through the rest of 2009... the most noteworthy level for the rest of the year is... 10,459/DJIA... It would not surprise me to see the DJIA retest this level - at 10,459... This range should be viewed as the upside objective AND major resistance for any rallies in 2009. ...3-6 month AND 6-12 month traders should have averaged back into equities - on March 2 - 6, 2009 - buying at 7,058 down to 6,469/DJIA... or an average entry of about 6,763/DJIA." TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
DJIA Poised for Multi-Month Bottom; Cycle Low Expected by March 6th...
March 2009 INSIIDE Track: "Stock indices are at major support (the DJIA has reached its downside objective for this 2-3 year bear market) and could be signaling that a 3-6 month bottom will take hold in the February 23 - March 6th cycle... The Major downside objective for this decline - since late-2007 - has been at 7,100/DJIA (or a range of 6,948 - 7,197/DJIA)... the DJIA was signaling a drop to new lows into its most synergistic cycle convergence - on February 23 - March 6, 2000... . ...Longer-term traders & investors (3-5 year or longer) should have exited the majority of equity holdings in late-2007... 3-6 month AND 6-12 month traders can begin averaging into equities at these levels... and averaging in down to 6,450/DJIA." TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
3-6 Month & 6-12 Month Traders Can Enter Longs on March 2--6th, Looking for Support As Market Approaches 6,450/DJIA!
17-Year Cycle Peaks in 2007
MAJOR Cycles Turning Down in late-2007
Bear Markets Expected into 2009 & into 2012!!
04/30/2007 INSIIDE Track: "...the start of a 2-year bear market in stocks...The indices are living on borrowed time and this is expected to be more apparent in late-2007... when an initial decline could be unfolding..."
05/30/2007 INSIIDE Track: "For over a decade, my primary focus has been on Sept. 2007 to usher in a unique period in history."
06/27/2007 INSIIDE Track: "...the DJIA could be heading for a 20 - 50% correction in the next 1-3 years..."
07/31/2007 INSIIDE Track: "...mid-to-late 2007 will usher in a 4-5 year period of very volatile, uncertain, and sometimes very negative action..."
10/31/2007 INSIIDE Track: "Stock indices are expected to begin a larger-scale correction in Nov... enter a 2-3 year bear market...fulfill two different levels of cycle tops in 2007..."
12/03/2007 INSIIDE Track: "Stock indices have fulfilled multiple cycles - on multiple levels - in multiple (diverse) arenas, setting the stage for a more prolonged bear market..."
Stock Indices Reach 10,580; Sell Signal Triggered... Quick Confirmation Needed
06/26/10 Weekly Re-Lay : "StockIndices fulfilled the upside objective for the month of June. By spiking up to 10,594, the DJIA fulfilled its ongoing projections for a rally to 10,580--10,620 before an intermediate top was deemed probable...
By the end of the week, the Stock Indices had generated weekly 2 CloseReversal sell signals and/or outside-week/2CloseReversal sell signals. In most cases, this should generate a few weeks (minimum) of downside follow-through... but I need to see this recent signal 'prove' itself. This could take a couple forms in the next 1-3 days...
The Indices could drop to new lows, violating the 13 trading-day cycle and diminishing the potential discussed in the 6/24/10 Alert. And, on June 30th, the Indices could close lower on the month. The May 2010 monthly closing prices were at 10,136/DJIA, 1084.2/SPU & 1850/NQU.
...The daily trends are now down in all three Indices, after spiking up to their intra-month upside targets and/or weekly resistance levels. By spiking up to resistance first - to begin the week - Stock Indices set up a little different short-term pattern, in which a pullback to weekly support would then take on a more negative (short-term) implication.
The next 1-3 days are crucial and need to further confirm these recent declines."
June 28--30th = Crucial Period When Downside Validation is Necessary!
Stock Indices Rebounding;
10,580--10,620/DJIA = Target
06/12/10 Weekly Re-Lay:
"Stock Indices are holding support and just signaled a new, 1-3 week rally. The immediate outlook is still for a test of 10,580--10,620/DJIA in June but the action of the coming week could have a strong bearing on what to expect between now and early-August...
Stock Indices unfolded in a classic 5-wave advance from March 2009 into April 2010. The 4th wave - the low that immediately precedes the final high - is a major support point for any ensuing corrections. That '4th wave of lesser degree' is the early-February lows that each of the Indices have tested... and held. Until this support is broken, the overall wave structure remains positive.
...Indices have given a new intermediate buy signal - a weekly 2CloseReversal higher - that should prompt at least 1-3 weeks of upside...The 14-15 week cycle - which pinpointed the top in late-April - has most recently created an ascending high-high-high CycleProgression. As a result, the next phase xxxxxxxxx [subscribers only] ...The next two weeks should tell the tale. As for now, the outlook is still for a rebound - in June - to at least 10,580--10,620/DJIA..."
Stock Indices Poised for Rebound;
10,600/DJIA = Upside Target for June
05/29/10 Weekly Re-Lay:
"The weekly 21MACs are still turning down at the same time the Indices are closing below them. This initial reversal usually leads to a bounce back to the upper range of this channel - the weekly 21HighMAC...This rebound is expected to carry the DJIA back above 10,600...the high of the 2010 opening range - at 10,619/DJIA...
...Stock Indices spiked to new lows on May 25th, exactly 13 trading days from the momentous, May 6th bottom. That May 6th bottom came 13 trading days after the April 19th low, the latest stage of an ongoing 13 trading-day cycle that has been in force for almost 6 months (occasionally, a 12 trading-day cycle)."
Stock Indices Peaking;
May 13th Cycle High Taking Hold!
05/13/10 INSIIDE Track Update: "StockIndices rebounded into May 13--17th - the next phase of a very consistent 13-trading day cycle that has been discussed for several months - and held precisely at initial resistance levels previously discussed (10,946--10,973/DJIA, 1174.8--1176.8/SPM & 1972--1989/NQM).
This cycle has been uncanny for over 7 months and helped pinpoint the February 5th low, the January 19th high and the April 26th peak. All totaled, this is now a 13 (once it shortened to 12) trading day low-low-low-high-high-low-low-low-low-high-high CycleProgression. The next phase arrives on June 2nd (+ or - 1 trading day) and should identify another peak."
Stock Indices Reversing;
Multiple Signals Possible!
04/28/10 Weekly Re-Lay Alert:
"Stock Indices gave the first signs of a reversal lower, neutralizing their daily uptrends (twice) after rallying to test critical upside targets & resistance levels - at 11,170--11,241/DJIA, 1224.7--1233.8/SPM & 2035--2061/NQM.
As explained before, these levels were expected to contain the Indices and trigger a 3-5 week correction... the Stock Indices are close to triggering multiple, intermediate sell signals in the coming days... 1--4 week traders should have sold June e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures at 2024 up to 2058/NQM..." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
Stock Indices Peaking;
April 26--30th = Potential Reversal!
04/24/10 Weekly Re-Lay:
"Stock Indices are testing crucial resistance levels, particularly 11,170--11,241/DJIA. They maintain the potential for an important peak in April but could stretch this into the coming week, due to the timing of the January peaks. Traders should be entering short positions in June e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures.
Stock Indices have fulfilled about 99% of 6-12 month, 3-6 month, 1-2 month & 1-4 week upside cyclic expectations. They have also fulfilled most of upside price expectations... Considering the diverse dates when a January peak was set, some of the Indices are now just entering the 14th week since their January peaks (while others are entering the 15th week). So, this remains consistent with the 14-15 week cycle - that has governed Stock Indices since October 2007... there are multiple examples of geometric cycles reinforcing this time frame.
... As emphasized last week, the fulfillment of all these upside objectives warns investors (anyone with more than a few week time horizon) to shift back to a more defensive posture, as in late-2007. From a price perspective, the DJIA has fulfilled expectations for a test of 11,170--11,241/ DJIA - where weekly LHRs, monthly resistance & a .618 retracement of the entire 2007--2009 decline converged. This coincided with the NQM testing a strong convergence of weekly LHRs at 2035--2045/NQM. As a result, a top could take hold at any time.
...1--4 week traders can be selling June e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures up to 2059/NQM..." FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!
April 2010 = DECISIVE TIME FRAME!
Stock Indices Fulfilling Outlook; April 2010 = Cycle High
03/20/10 Weekly Re-Lay: "StockIndices are nearing what has been expected to be - and is still expected to be - a major top. A peak in April 2010 - when a myriad of cycles come into play - would fulfill or complete...
...A 30-month low-low-high-high CycleProgression that connects the October 2002 bottom, April 2005 low, October 2007 peak and a potential April 2010 high...A corresponding 129--132 week low-low-high-high CycleProgression...
...A 2DGR (.786) retracement of the October 2007--March 2009 decline. As explained in related TechTips, this retracement is the final retracement - in price, time or both - before a move is defined as an impulse instead of a corrective wave.
...A Nasdaq 100 peak in April 2010 would culminate a 17-month advance from the Nov. 2008 bottom. This is the same duration as the culminating, 17-month parabolic rally from October 1998 into late-March 2000..."
Stock Indices Remain On Track; Rally into April 2010 Likely
03/06/10 Weekly Re-Lay:
"The1-2yearoutlook was for a bottom in early-March 2009 followed by a rally into year-end - testing 10,459/DJIA or higher - and a continued rally into March/April 2010 before a new decline (at least 2-3 months; potentially larger) took hold.
The 6-12monthoutlook was for this advance to initially peak in January - around 10,660/DJIA, pull back and then rally into April, in part because of the 14-15 week cycle.
...The 2-3monthoutlook was for a peak in January followed by a low on February 1--5th and then a rebound into February 18/19th, a pullback into early-March and then a rally into April."
