The INSIIDE Track intra-month Update is a brief update geared to bridge the gap between issues of the monthly INSIIDE Track newsletter. It is updated by 9:00 PM (Central Time) around the 5th, 12th & 22nd of each month (specific dates for each month's IT Update provided in the preceding IT Update AND in the Re-Cap section of the preceding issue of INSIIDE Track ) and on any day the DJIA closes 200 points in either direction.

   The INSIIDE Track Update focuses on the 3-5 week & 1-3 month trends, trades and analysis and is also able to convey any intra-month changes much quicker than the monthly newsletter - when it can still be capitalized on - for those intermediate term traders that want to stay in a little closer touch with the markets.

   Since not all INSIIDE Track newsletter subscribers opt to also subscribe to the IT Update, the trades given in the newsletter and IT Update are separate and/or treated differently. This is to take into consideration the fact that newsletter-only subscribers will not be receiving the more timely updates available in the IT Update .

   As a result, IT Update trades will frequently be exited quicker than those given in the newsletter since closer touch is maintained. This also means that stops given for newsletter-based traders are often wider (involving more risk but allowing a larger buffer to prevent premature whipsaws) than those given or revised in the intra-month Update.

   Be careful to treat apples as apples and oranges as oranges. Do not mix the trades in the various publications unless you are attempting to provide a diversity of time frames in your portfolio (in which case both trades should be followed).

[NOTE: The INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update is NOT The Weekly Re-Lay service. Please do not confuse the two as they are very different.]

Below is a sample of a recent INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update:

March 22, 2012 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update
[Update trades apply only to INSIIDE Track analysis, and are distinct from Weekly Re-Lay trading strategies. Do NOT mix the two as they incorporate diverse time frames,risk parameters and update frequency.
See add'l notes below.]

03/22/12 - INSIIDE Track Update -- Stock Indices exceeded the 'ideal' time for a peak and extended this rally to the final day of the 'window' surrounding the March 5--9th weekly cycle.  In doing so, they rallied right to the intermediate, upside price objectives in the Nasdaq 100 (2690--2701) and the S+P 500 (1391.3--1408.6).

These ranges closely coincide with monthly resistance levels (1394.8--1409.5/SPM & 2713--2741/ NQM) and included the two latest weekly LHR levels (1388.9 & 1394.8/SPM and 2722 & 2722/NQM).

The Nasdaq 100 almost perfectly fulfilled this weekly dual-LHR target - hitting 2720/NQM on March 16th.  This portends an intermediate peak in the ensuing weeks.

The interesting aspect of this is the wave structure, since the October low.  This latest rally is a clear '5th' wave that is most likely - based on the fact the '3rd' wave was the extended, dynamic wave - poised to be similar to the '1st' wave.  This applies to magnitude (price) and to duration (time).

From a timing perspective, the Nov. 25th--Dec. 7th ('1' wave) rally lasted 12 days.  A similar rally would peak on March 16/19th.

From a price perspective, the '1' wave rally encompassed 114.0/SP points and 200/NQ points.  Similar rallies - from the recent lows - would project tops around 1447/SPM & 2769/NQM.

This is interesting since the NQM has weekly resistance encompassing this wave target AND also created an Intra-week PLLR at 2770/NQM.  So, a spike up to this level is likely.  So, although this advance has carried to the outer extreme of cycle expectations - and exceeded it in at least one of the Indices - there is not much of a technical argument for this being the start of anything significant.  This does not yet, in and of itself, signal a reversal lower.  But, it does hint that any remaining upside potential is severely limited... at least for the coming weeks.

3--5 week traders should have exited April e-mini S+P 1325.0 put options w/avg. losses of about $150/option.

Bonds & Notes finally broke out of congestion, finally turned their intra-year trends down, finally neutralized their weekly uptrends and - in the case of Bonds - finally accelerated toward - and then precisely tested - their intermediate, downside objective (the October low at 135-05/US).

It took longer than expected - for Bonds to validate the mid-December cycle high - but they have now completed all of what has been expected during this initial down phase.  The second phase - that has the potential to stretch into June 2012 - should be the really decisive one.  In order to confirm a major top, Bonds would need to convincingly break below 135-05/US.

At the same time, Notes tested their monthly HLS (128-01/TYM) and fulfilled a pair of wave targets ('c' wave = 1.618 times magnitude of 'a' wave and entire 'a-b-c' decline = twice the magnitude of initial 'a' wave decline).  So, multiple support levels have been tested.
Bonds & Notes are poised to neutralize their weekly uptrends a second time, on March 23rd.  This would set the stage for a decisive period beginning next week.

The Dollar Index has reinforced analysis for an initial bottom in late-Feb., right after the weekly trend turned down.  It has completed the expected, 2-3 week bounce and tested the ideal price range for a peak.  A secondary high was expected last week, most likely by/on March 15/16th.

The ideal level for this was identified as 80.64--81.13/DXM - where weekly & monthly resistance intersect.  A test of this range would also have the Dollar Index spiking into its year-opening range (now viewed as resistance).

Right on schedule, the Dollar rallied into March 15th and topped at 81.16/DXM, before reversing lower.  In the process, the Dollar generated a second neutral signal against its prevailing weekly downtrend.  This peak should hold through month-end and - if the Dollar can drop below 79.00/DXM by/on March 30th - hold for 2-3 months.

The Euro did the opposite, fulfilling expectations for a 2-3 week correction and spiking down to within .0015 of important support and its intermediate downside target at 1.2986--1.2994/ECM.

This range - that included the 2011 year-end close, weekly support (which was tested), the weekly trend point & the weekly 8 High MARC - was the ideal level for an intermediate bottom.  As a result, the Euro could/should rally to new intra-year highs in the coming weeks.  The Yen dropped right to monthly support that was expected to prompt a near-term rebound.  This is now underway.  However, an ultimate test of 1.1700/JY - the April 2011 low & a 4th wave of lesser degree - is still possible.  This could wait until monthly cycles converge in early-April.

Gold & Silver remain on track for an overall decline - from their late-February peaks into late-March, 90-degrees/13-weeks from the late-December low.  They reversed lower on March 12th, leaving Gold with a 13-day high-high-(low) Cycle Progression that projects a drop into March 26th.

This is actually the latest phase of a 12-13-day high-low-high-high-(low?) Cycle Sequence... that would project a low for March 23/26th.

A corresponding 9 trading-day cycle - combined with the weekly HLS pattern - could trigger this low as early as March 23rd.  However, the weekly trend pattern - particularly in Silver - is reinforcing the focus on next week, for a reversal higher.

Gold's first downside target - for the month of March - is at 1609--1613.0/GCM.  This range also corresponds with weekly support.  Silver has a corresponding target at 2935--2976/SIK.  Looking ahead, Gold & Silver could see a new surge during the month of April - with multiple cycles projecting a peak on April 23--27th.

Soybeans, Corn & Wheat reversed lower after Soybeans completed a 29-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.

Wheat also spiked a little higher, perpetuating a 7-week high-low-high-(high) Cycle Sequence.  It did this while Corn was perpetuating a 21 trading-day low-low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progression, with its March 19th peak.

Both quickly turned their daily trends to down, reinforcing projections for a sharp sell-off into March 26--30th, the next phase of a 5-week high-low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression.  However, in the case of Wheat, this could stretch into the coming month(s).

Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are consolidating after Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil came close to fulfilling the minimum upside price objectives for these advances (since October 2011).  These come into play at 350.0/RB & 333.0/HO... and the Energy markets fulfilled the potential for a peak in early-March 2012.  However, monthly cycles (discussed in INSIIDE Track) would allow for an ultimate peak to stretch as late as May 2012.

This possibility is corroborated by a few weekly cycles in Crude.  For starters, the mid-March low in Crude created a 6.5 week (29-30 trading-day) low-low-low Cycle Progression while testing & holding the year-opening trading range (resistance turned into support).  This could propel a 29-30 trading day advance... that would culminate on April 26/27th.

A peak in late-April/early-May would create the third consecutive year in which Crude topped during that narrow window of time.

Crude has also created an 8-week cycle - between its January 5th & March 1st highs - that corroborates this.  Another 8 weeks in the future is April 23--27th, with the corresponding daily cycle coming into play on April 26/27th.  An intervening high could be set at the midpoint of this 8-week cycle - on March 26--30th.

Natural Gas is trying to signal a bottom but needs a daily close above 2.572/NGM to confirm this.  That would turn the daily trend up and neutralize the intra-month downtrend.  Until this occurs, the trends remain down.

Futures trading involves substantial risk.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Update trades apply only to INSIIDE Track analysis, and are distinct from Weekly Re-Lay recommendations.  The next INSIIDE Track Update will be after 9:00 PM CST on April 5th ... or any intervening day the DJIA cash index closes 200 points or more in either direction.

[By its very nature, the IT Update cannot react as quickly as the WR and must focus on the bigger picture and be willing to take larger risk on corresponding trades.  Some subscribers just purchase the IT Newsletter & Update & do NOT receive the WR, preventing their knowledge of shorter-term WR trades.  WR traders have the option of sticking with just the WR trades or setting up a portfolio that trades both.  The benefit of this is that sometimes markets do not allow a low-risk entry and a particular move might be missed by WR traders while IT Update traders might have entered earlier (but w/greater risk).  IT Update traders must risk more since updates are less frequent & not conducive to frequent in-and-out trading.  The two systems are different & should be treated as such.  See insiidetrack.com for related descriptions of these services.]


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Weekly Re-Lay fax/e-mail service (w/intra-week Alerts)
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Eric Hadik's Tech Tip Reference Library

Futures trading involves substantial risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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