04/28/01 - Intermediate (2-4 wk) Outlook:
   The Dollar is not ready to give up the ghost... just yet. Despite completing an outside-week/2 Close Reversal lower and a weekly 2 Step Reversal lower on 4/20, the Dollar managed to spike lower and then give a weekly 2 Close Reversal higher on 4/27. By itself, this signal might be dismissed as an anomaly or a typical whipsaw accompanying a very important turning point. However, there is another signal that is near-term bullish for the Dollar (and bearish the Euro)...
   After giving two neutral signals against its prevailing weekly uptrend, the Dollar closed back above its weekly trend point on 4/27 (re-entering a weekly uptrend). At the same time, the Euro did the opposite. It had given two neutral signals against its prevailing weekly downtrend before closing back below it (re-entering a weekly downtrend) on 4/27. This signal is usually followed by the setting of new highs (Dollar) or lows (Euro) in the immediate future.
   Combining these two factors with the intra-year trends - that have remained up in the Dollar and down in the Euro since February 9th - I have to give the benefit of the doubt to the 2CR signals that were just generated and treat the 2CR & 2SR signals of 4/21 as an early-warning sign. More than anything, the 4/28 2 Close Reversal signal is the most recent and - if only for that reason - has to be respected until proven otherwise.
   From a timing standpoint, the ideal situation would have the Dollar rally into May 10/11th and then reverse lower. If this occurred, the Dollar would equal its previous 18-week/129-day advance of 6/19--

10/26/00, would equal 2 of its 3 most recent rallies and would be .618 times its most recent (3/02--4/02/01) advance. It would also complete an equidistant high-high-high from 2/22--4/02--5/11/01. A high during the week of May 7-11th would also fit in an ongoing scenario for a bear market in the second half of 2001 that extends into the week of March 18--22, 2002.
   If a new high is set around May 11th, it will push back the timing for an initial low, which would then be most likely between July 16-20, 2001.
   The Yen is confirming analysis for a final spike down. The weeks of May 7--18th see some long-term cycles converge and could set a low.

                 Short-Term (1-5 day) Outlook:
   The Yen waited until late in the week before testing its intra-week support at 80.70--80.99/JYM. This confirmed analysis in the 4/25 Alert and triggered a bearish, near-term scenario. It should lead to the Yen setting new lows below 79.62/JYM in the coming weeks.
   The Dollar was expected to work a little lower and then rebound into May 2/3rd. The fact that it only spiked lower on 4/23 showed some underlying strength. However, it needs a daily close above 116.00/DXM to reverse its daily trend up and confirm the recent low. Ideally, the Dollar will accomplish this early and then pull back into mid-week, before mounting a final surge.
   Trading Strategies: No new system trades. There is the potential for a Dollar buy signal & Euro sell signal mid-week, but I need to see the action of 4/30 first.