04/28/01 - GOLD/SILVER: Int. (2-4 wk) Outlook:
   Gold came within .7 points of it's initial upside objective (268.2--272.3/GCM) and quickly pulled back. Both Gold & Silver have had ample time for a minor breakout and have failed to capitalize on this opportunity. As a result, a final decline into mid-May is possible. As stated last week (with respect to Gold):
   "it only gave its first weekly neutral signal - against a prevailing weekly downtrend - so more confirmation is needed to validate early-April cycles and project an uptrending quarter. Silver rallied to resistance but has not yet broken through it. Nor has it given even an initial neutral signal to its weekly downtrend."
   Precious Metals have done little to confirm a low and are capable of setting an intra-quarter V pattern by setting a low in mid-May and then rallying into late-June. This would fit with the cycle analysis described last week:
   "This coincides with a progression in Silver involving its successive 43-week decline and 43-week rally of 1998-1999. This 86-week high to high projects another turning point 86 weeks later (which could make the current decline exactly double - at 86 weeks - its predecessor of 43 weeks IF a final sell-off is triggered) on May 21--25, 2001."
   Gold - which peaked a week later than Silver in 1999 - has several reasons why it could extend the current decline to a total of 84-85 weeks and bottom between May 14--25th. It's previous decline was 67 weeks. 1.272 times 67 is 85. (Also, the decline from the secondary high in 2/00 will be exactly 67 weeks during

the same period.) The high-high cycle leading into the 10/99 high was 52 weeks. 1.618 times 52 is 84.
   A low in mid-to-late May will also be the 1-year anniversary of the May 2000 low in Gold. From a more intermediate basis, a low on May 17th will complete a 45-day low-low-low and a 90-day low-low in Gold.

              Short-Term (1-5 day) Outlook:
   As stated on 4/21, until Gold & Silver see successive daily closes above 268.2/GCM & 447.0/SIK... the weekly downtrends should exert a bearish influence. If/when these markets reverse their daily trends down, they could see a final drop to test 413.5/SI & 253.1/GC.
   Trading Strategies: Intermediate traders should have bought August Gold 270 call options from 258.2 down to 255.8/GCM (average entry price around 4.00) and now risk a daily close below 262.6/GCM (June).
   JLY SOYBEANS: Soybeans are showing signs of a developing bottom, but need a close above 432.5/SN to signal a short-term low. Short-term traders should have exited short positions on the 4/26 close with gains of about $300--$400/contract. No new system trades.
   JUNE CRUDE: Crude reached support but also reversed its daily trend down in the process. It has since given two neutral signals and needs a daily close above 28.65/CLM to reverse it back up. While intermediate analysis still calls for a rally into mid-to-late May, the short-term outlook is cloudy until the daily trend clears up. A daily close above 28.65 or below 27.98/CLM will project the next 3-5 day trend.
   Trading Strategies: No new system trades.