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"Good call on the market... I've saved lots of money on my 401K since you called the top last year."
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Commodity
futures trading involves substantial risk. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. By reading the pages on
this web site, you acknowledge, understand and agree to these
disclaimers. |
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Site Last
Updated
December 9, 2008
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INSIIDE
Track Trading
is a specialized market-timing & trading advisory service
for Stock Indices (DJIA, S+P 500, Nasdaq 100), Gold, Silver
& Copper (precious metals), Treasury Bonds, Notes &
Eurodollars (interest rates), Currencies (US Dollar, Euro
Currency Unit, Japanese Yen…), Crude Oil, Soybeans, Corn
& Wheat and various other commodities. 23-year market
veteran Eric S. Hadik integrates innovative cycle work (Gann,
Fibonacci, Biblical & natural cycles) with proprietary
technical indicators, axioms & trading principles to give
a unique perspective on the markets, interest rates, inflation,
war & peace cycles, the global political structure &
periodicity of natural events (e.g. earthquakes, volcanoes,
drought & floods, etc.)
|
 4/30--5/04/01 |
| INTEREST
RATES |
| |
Jun Bonds (USM) |
Dec Euros (EDZ) |
Jun 10-Yr Note (TYM) |
| Mo Resistence: |
106-02-106-20 |
95.81--95.84 |
107-08-107-18 |
| Mo Support: |
102-10//101-08 |
95.18--95.22 |
105-04//104-06 |
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| Weekly Trend: |
Down |
Up |
Dn/Neut (2) |
| Wk Resistance: |
101-03-101-14 |
95.62--95.68 |
104-11-104-23 |
| Wk Support: |
99-08---99-14 |
95.36--95.41 |
103-07--103-15 |
| Daily Trend: |
Down |
Up/Neut (2) |
Down |
|
| 04/28/01
- Intermediate (2-4 wk) Outlook:
Bonds are at a critical juncture.
They have just completed the ideal time frame for this
decline while closing at their lowest levels. They remain
in the support range projected to usher in a low, so
a reversal higher in the coming days is still a real
possibility. So far, Bonds remain within the projected
path outlined in the following chart. As stated last
week:
"From a practical - as opposed
to theoretical - standpoint, Bonds should not give a
weekly close below 99-12/US if this Elliott Wave pattern
is to remain valid. The reason is that the 1 wave high
of April 2000 was 99-28 while the highest weekly close
of that advance was 99-12/US."
There
are at least two factors that could/should |
|
extend
this decline at least 1 more day. First is end of the
month pressure. Considering that the entire month of
April has been negative, the final day is likely to
feel selling pressure as well. Second is the weekly
chart. Bonds dropped for 67 weeks from 10/98 to 1/00.
A 67-week low-low cycle from the January 2000 low occurs
in the coming week. So, if Bonds spike to a new low
they could be setting a longer-term low than originally
expected. This will be discussed if/when confirmed.
There is another factor that goes
along with the 67-week high-low/low-low sequence. It
is the possibility that this decline could be correcting
the entire rally in Bonds… instead of correcting
only the '3' wave. If so, Bonds could spike as low as
their 50% retracement at 98-04. The ramifications of
this possibility are more long-term oriented so I will
save them for later.
Notes still need a weekly close below
103-205/ TYM to reverse their weekly trend to down,
making the coming week another potential for a reversal
higher. They are also entering the 3rd week since testing
and holding a weekly HLS… increasing the odds for
a low.
Short-Term (1-5
day) Outlook:
Bonds & Notes did not spike to
support on Monday, altering the posture for the past
week. As they enter a new week - and a new month - a
similar possibility exists. Both have short-term cycle
sequences aligning on Monday, so a spike low and reversal
higher is likely. Watch weekly support in both contracts.
Trading Strategy: Intermediate
traders can buy Notes at 103-17 down to 103-03 and risk
102-19/TYM. |
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