The Weekly
Re-Lay service is a weekly publication
- supplemented with intra-week Alert (s)
- and structured for more active traders. As such,
it offers short term (1-5 day) and short-to-intermediate
term (1-4 week) analysis, trades and perspectives.
The trades are intended to choose the highest probability/lowest
risk opportunities based on synergy. In addition, the
daily and weekly trends are provided as guidelines
for trading when a 'system' trade is not generated
or in force.
The Weekly Re-Lay incorporates
subjective analysis (like cycles, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci & Gann
analysis) with objective trading indicators ( 2 Close Reversals™ , 2-Step Reversals ™, MAC/MARC/AMACs™ , Double-Key™& Turn-Key Reversals™,
etc.) to provide a balanced and comprehensive perspective
on the markets.
The goal of the Weekly Re-Lay trading system
is NOT to catch every move in the market, but rather
to choose the perceived 'cream
of the crop' based on a proprietary combination
of indicators.
System Trade Strategies provide a small
sample of corresponding action, seeking to choose the
perceived lowest risk/highest probability trades based
on specific patterns - with strict money management
being first priority. They do not imply the only action
to corresponding analysis, are not always directly
linked to the published analysis, and should be viewed/traded
as a whole (portfolio).
As
such, specific analysis does NOT always lead to corresponding
'system trades' if a proper entry signal - with prudent risk
parameters - does not present itself.
System trades are
a specific pattern-recognition discipline that looks
to capitalize on the 3-5 day and 1-4 week trends,
which often go against the larger (3-5 week, 1-3
month, 3-6 month and/or 6-12+ month) trends. This
particular combination of patterns & risk
control parameters also resists markets that have entered
periods of high volatility or accelerated trends.
Money management plays an overriding role that can
trigger an exit from existing trades even if nothing
has changed in the prevailing analysis. For this reason,
traders should not confuse these signals with the underlying
trends or assume that they imply any change in the
longer-term trends or analysis unless specifically
stipulated. They represent just one particular approach
that should be understood and implemented in its proper
context.
There
are many other applications for the analysis and readers
should seek to integrate it with their own trading
approach, utilizing our proprietary indicators, identification
of daily & weekly trends, cycles & resistance/support
zones. Always use synergy & prudent money management
(see Eric Hadik's Tech Tip™ Reference
Library ).
System
trades are
aimed at traders who have learned to treat trading
as a business... not simply
as a source of excitement. Just as most businesses
focus on only a few opportunities or products at any
given time (those deemed to be the best choice and
with the highest profit-potential or market-appeal
at that point in time), so, too, does our approach
to trading select only those trades that are perceived
to have the best potential.
To reiterate, the goal is not to overtrade, but to accurately trade!
I
recognize every trader has a different approach to
the market and vastly different risk comfort levels.
As a result, you are encouraged to integrate the analysis
with your own trading strategy or strategies, particularly
when the analysis does not result in a specific (published)
system trade strategy.
If you are focusing on only one market, keep this
in mind since no claims are being made or implied that
specific system-based trades are going to capitalize
on all, or even the majority, of the analysis. This
is why both analysis and trading strategies are provided.
When
a specific trade is not in force, the daily and weekly
trends should determine the preferred direction in which
to trade (using corresponding resistance & support
to trade against or use as a breakout signal). In addition,
analysis & trading recommendations should be incorporated with the
daily & weekly trends.
For
example... If
a trend is clearly down, then this is a known factor.
As a result, the analysis will often focus more on
what would change this even if a reversal is not
immediately expected. This is so that traders can
both recognize the underlying trend AND be aware
of where this trend might be neutralized or reversed
(and corresponding action necessary). The absence of
these reversal signals carries the assumption that
the underlying trend remains in force and should be
respected.
The most important factor in an established trade
or trend is knowing when to get out or recognizing
when it is reversing. As a result, the potential negative
factors will regularly be given during an uptrend or
long trade and the potential positive factors
will dominate during a downtrend/ short trade. This
is primarily to inform traders what should be monitored
as potential danger signs. One factor (the
trend) is already known. Therefore, the other factor
(what will derail this trend) often receives more attention.
Analysis can point to a big move in a specific market
without a trade being generated by the criteria built
into this particular trading program. This does not
mean that a trader should not act on the analysis,
only that this specific program was not able to generate
a trade or that a money management filter or volatility
filter overrode the potential trade.
In
some cases, an intermediate trade might be generated
while a short-term one is not. This is why it is important
to understand the distinctions of the two forms of
trades and choose your preference accordingly...
Short-term trades
(1-5 days) are NOT intended to catch the big moves but rather to provide 1-5
day trades with reasonable risk. As such, traders following
only short-term trades should not expect to be in all,
or many, of the big moves since they often occur after
a period of inactivity.
Unfortunately for some, the standard principle in life also
applies to successful trading: You cannot have your cake and eat it too .
This is not intended to be facetious or cynical. Let me explain...
All trading
is a calculation of reward versus risk. (Believe it or not, almost every decision
you make in life involves some facet of the same calculation,
e.g. "Is the potential reward of sharing this
innovative idea greater than the risk of embarrassment
if it is misunderstood or proven to be ludicrous?"...
etc.) In most cases, the one is proportional to the
other. If you are looking to only risk $500 on a specific
trade, it is likely to be a trade with profit potential of
$1,000-$2,000.
As a result, a trade with that type of risk will be
exited in that general area - assuming it has been
successful and followed expectations - unless it immediately
enters a parabolic move and escalates into an intermediate
trade (about 1 out of 10).
This does not mean that the trade is immediately exited
when it reaches that level (although trailing stop
levels are often significantly tightened at that time)
but rather is a reflection of the criteria built into
this particular trading methodology. If it enables
you to enter a trade with that small of risk, it is
likely to be exited much quicker and with much less
adverse action than is required to hold on to a big
mover.
In
addition, these trades are sometimes against the daily & weekly
trend since the contra-trend moves are often the
sharpest. This is another reason why acute sensitivity
is designed into a short-term trading program - to
avoid returning 90% of the profits on each minor
move.
Short-term trades, once taken, need to take
out - on a closing basis - intermediate resistance
or support points if they are to extend beyond the
prescribed 1-5 days. (In some cases, I will recommend
tightening trailing stops but still leaving a trade
open if other factors favor its extension.) If a breakout
occurs, they can then be considered an intermediate
trade with the updated risk and profit-taking factors.
Intermediate trades (1-4 weeks) follow similar
principles albeit on a slightly larger scale.
Daily & weekly
trends are a lagging
indicator based on a proprietary pattern that is not
revealed. These trends are used as a backdrop and/or
confirming signal - not a trigger mechanism.
The Weekly Re-Lay ä is written after
the weekly close & transmitted by Monday's open.
It is published/priced a minimum of 12 wks/qtr (48
wks/year). Alert s are
market-driven intra-week updates sent before, during
or after trading hours.
For
explanation of terms & indicators, see Eric
Hadik's Tech-Tip ä Reference
Library or insiidetrack.com .
All Tech Tips™ & the
term Tech Tips™ are
trademarks of INSIIDE T rack Trading .
If you are
a new prospect, please e-mail,
fax, call, or mail us to request your free samples
of each of our publications. Then you can see for
yourself why the host of the weekly financial show: ‘ Inside
Wall Street ' called Eric's work ‘the best
kept secret of our industry' .
Information in the Weekly Re-Lay and all publications
is from sources believed reliable but accuracy cannot
be guaranteed. Principals/employees/associates of INSIIDE
T rack Trading may have positions in cited contracts.
No part of this publication may be re-transmitted or
reproduced w/out the editor's written consent. All
analysis & trade strategies are based on the entire
trading session (not just ‘pit-session') unless otherwise
specified. Trading Strategy results are based on entry & exit
at the recommended levels and do not account for slippage
or commission costs. Readers using this information
are solely responsible for their actions & invest
at their own risk. Past performance is no guarantee
of future results. Futures trading involves substantial
risk. Copyright 2005 INSIIDE Track Trading
Corporation
POB
2252 Naperville IL 60567 630-637-0967 // 630-585-5701(fx) INSIIDE@aol.com
www.insiidetrack.com
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